Online postgraduate students in UK higher education: What's the current picture?

Online education as a relatively new mode of teaching & learning in the grand timeline of education is often, as if by default, accompanied by a narrative of it being the growing modality of the future.

Whilst there’s a lot in that - higher education institutions (HEIs) need to build foundations on something firmer than hyperbolic predictions as they look to successfully offer online distance education.

Any HEIs who are running or looking to grow a portfolio of online courses need to have a good understanding of levels of student demand for online distance education. They need to develop a clear picture of current student numbers, trends and trajectories and be informed as they can be about what the future might hold.

Earlier this year I shared some research on online postgraduate taught courses (PGT) at UK HEIs, showing that there are over 3,250 online PGT courses. This research gave a good indicator of the “supply” side of online PGT education but what about “demand”?

How many students are studying PGT courses online? Are we seeing a growth in the numbers? What things can we deduce from the data we have available?

The main open source of data on students at UK HEIs is from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), who openly publish data at different points.

Currently their open data covers the 2021/22 academic year and so that’s as up to date we can be on evaluating online PGT student numbers.

What are the overall online distance PGT student numbers and proportions?

As of the 2021/22’s academic year there were approximately 170,000 online distance learning PGT students. This figure combines UK-based students studying via distance learning and international students studying via distance, flexible or distributed learning.

There has been growth in student numbers year-on-year and there are over 50,000 more online PGT students than there were in 2017/18.

But it’s interesting to note that whilst there’s been numerical growth, the proportion of all PGT students that are studying online has fairly consistently hovered around the 20% mark.

However, one interesting change over the last five years has been a change in the balance of online students that are based in the UK and those based internationally

In 2021-22 the percentage of online PGT students based in the UK was 54% as opposed to 46% international online students. Whereas in 2017/18 these percentages were the other way round. So over the last five years the number of UK-based online PGT students has grown more quickly than those based internationally.

Given all the talk about the overall increase of international students at UK HEIs and the increase in the proportion of international PGT students - it’s interesting to see this trend doesn’t directly correlate to online distance education.

However, one trend that online PGT student numbers are following is a decrease in EU-based students. After year-on-year increases 21-22 saw a decrease in their number.

Which HEIs are growing their online PGT students?

Of the 180 UK HEIs I researched there are 51 with a total of 1,000 or more online PGT students. Unsurprisingly, the UK’s most renowned online distance universities, the University of London and the Open University have the highest number.

However, there are several universities that have had notable year-on-year increases in their numbers of online PGT students. These include King’s College, London, University of Edinburgh, University of Salford and the University of Law. If they follow the trajectory of the last 7 years some of these universities might be metaphorically promoted into the leagues of large online distance universities in the future.

In the last 7 years, 29 UK HEIs have experienced growth in their number of online distance students of 1,000 or more and it’s been interesting to analyse this group and try to understand the factors that might lie behind that growth.

The most striking finding is that over 60% of these universities are partnered with an online programme management company (OPM). In one sense this isn’t completely surprising given online PGT programmes dominate these partnerships but it is still very revealing.

Another 10% of this group either have a distinct online arm or brand, or have a franchise-type agreement with an online provider.

So, another way to frame this - is to say that over 70% of UK HEIs who’ve grown their online student number by 1,000+ over the last 7 years have done so via a public-private partnership or through the creation of a distinct online brand.

Although the focus so far has been on HEIs who’ve grown their online PGT student numbers, there is a smaller group of HEIs that have seen sharp declines over the years.

The decline in numbers runs into the thousands and although it is not always clearly evident why, in at least three instances this is related to the end of an OPM or online franchise type partnership.

It’s not unreasonable to speculate that in some instances a decline in numbers could be to do with increased competition. Especially given there’s a larger and increasing pool of UK universities more invested in online distance education.

This may also be a reason why a small group of universities that have large numbers of online PGT students have seen those numbers remain pretty static over the last few years.

What’s the overall picture?

Online PGT student numbers have been growing but not as a proportion of the PGT student body as a whole. The number of UK-based online PGT students has been growing more quickly than international students according to the data, and there are more of them than international students.

We might speculate on factors behind this such as the pandemic legitimising online education for some. Growth might also be due to the combined effect of economic times leading people to return to education to benefit their career, but doing so in a way that enables them to fit study around work commitments. The availability of postgraduate loans will also undoubtedly have played a role here.

One really striking finding is the extent of the footprint that online programme management (OPM) companies have on online PGT student numbers as a whole.

These partnerships appear to strongly correlate with a growth in numbers for many HEIs and conversely the ending of OPM partnerships is related to significant declines in some instances too.

Having recently written about the issues these types of companies face and the threats and challenges to their traditional playbook - it will be interesting to observe whether OPMs are still able to attract and recruit online PGT students in the number they seem to have previously.

Which I think leads on nicely to consideration about the future of online PGT demand and student numbers….

There are certainly reasons why one can predict a growth in both UK-based and International online distance PGT numbers.

Firstly, in the UK there are both a growing number of 18 year olds and a growing number of people gaining undergraduate degrees to qualify them to study at PGT level.

A HEPI report published in 2020 on Postgraduate Education in the UK actually noted that ‘government should be preparing for a material increase in the postgraduate population from 2023’. However, this should be tempered somewhat by the economic difficulty we currently face in the UK which can influence both the ability and appetite of people to commit thousands of pounds towards study.

Another factor that may influence a growth in international online distance PGT students is the UK government current stance towards on-campus international PGT students.

Despite research showing the economic benefits of international PGT students coming to the UK - the government seems more concerned about how international PGT numbers influence the stats on migration.

In a recent piece - Jo Johnson, Chairman of FutureLearn highlighted that he felt the UK government's support for international PGT students is waning and pointed to the fact this could lead to an increased dependence on online distance learning.

This is entirely plausible despite the fact his affiliations mean this would be a professionally desirable outcome for him.

However, one thing to note here is that different fees for UK-based and international students is not as widespread or consistent in online distance education. This means that international student fees for online distance education might not have the cross-subsidising super powers they do for on-campus courses.

Nevertheless there are enough signals to suggest that growth in online PGT students will increase and that this is a growing market. However, I don’t think that means that HEIs should have the mentality that the fields are ripe to harvest, not least due to increasing supply, competition and the volatile times we are living through.