2025 Q3 Review: Online learning developments in UK higher education
With the summer firmly behind us and as we’re now well into autumn, it’s time to look back at some key developments in the last quarter in UK higher education, and online education in particular. While the summer generally tends to be a quieter period, there has been no shortage of relevant and noteworthy developments over the past quarter, let’s dive in.
Teaching Excellence Framework (TEF) and online learning implications
There have been a number of policy, regulatory and wider HE developments that bear either a direct or indirect influence on online education. The first was the publication of a consultation on a new quality assessment system from the Office for Students (OfS), England’s HE regulator. The proposal was centred on a revised Teaching Excellence Framework (TEF) and its integration with the OfS’s existing regulatory assessment activity.
If the proposed changes go ahead, they are likely to have a long-term impact on online education, primarily through greater regulatory and quality scrutiny, mainly as a result of plans to widen the scope of TEF to include postgraduate and modular study, areas where online provision is significant.
The current proposals maintain a regulatory focus on student outcomes such as continuation and completion, but poor performance under these proposals could result in greater penalties, such as more frequent reviews, increased regulatory burden, and, most notably, recruitment limits. This may disproportionately affect online providers and those with substantial online provision, as the core online learner audience and flexible study modes do increase challenges around continuation and completion.
Although the consultation acknowledges this and allows providers to submit evidence to justify performance, it nonetheless presents greater risks for universities given the more punitive approach.Alongside the prospect of greater scrutiny for online education under a TEF with wider scope, there are also plans to separate outcomes data for in-house and sub-contracted provision, which may lead to greater visibility and scrutiny of OPM-partnered provision.
Overall, these announcements point towards increased oversight of the quality and outcomes associated with online education, and although changes are likely to be some way off, the direction of travel is clear and again puts emphasis on the effective design, delivery and support infrastructure needed to drive student success in online programmes.
Lifelong Learning Entitlement (LLE) updates and funding restrictions
In other policy-focused news, some refinements to the Lifelong Learning Entitlement (LLE) were announced. The most notable was the narrowing of eligibility for funding to subjects identified as national priorities tied to the industrial strategy.
The latest updated guidance stated that the LLE will “fund level 4, 5 and 6 modules from full level 6 parent qualifications – for example, degrees – in subject groups that address priority skills needs and align with the government’s industrial strategy. This will be for:
Computing
Engineering
Architecture, building and planning (excluding the landscape gardening subgroup)
Physics and astronomy
Mathematical sciences
Nursing and midwifery
Allied health
Chemistry
Economics
Health and social care
The relevance of these developments, and the LLE in general, to online education is debatable. The government has already limited the scope for online education to support loan-funded lifelong learning by adding a further qualification step for distance learning and online courses. These will be “designated” for funding rather than automatically designated if they meet the specific criteria. Also, online learners will not be eligible for maintenance loans.
These constraints currently provide little incentive to make significant efforts to develop online courses aligned with the LLE. This increasingly appears to be a miscalculation, given online learning’s strong alignment with the broader intentions of the funding change, such as providing flexible education and supporting people to learn throughout their working lives. Unfortunately, successive governments have largely overlooked online education and seem to have little understanding of the role it plays in lifelong and professional learning.
As I’ve argued previously, this mode of education arguably serves the government’s agenda more effectively now than when it was actively debated in policy circles. When this government manages to snap out of what feels like an extended political version of The Play That Goes Wrong, it would be wise to give more serious consideration to the role online learning can play in its agenda.
However, as things stand, disaggregation of online degree provision is happening largely at PGT level, and given the current online student market and the exclusionary nature of the LLE for online education, I would not expect this to change anytime soon.
UCAS acceptance rates and mature student enrolment trends
The summer also brought news on undergraduate university applicant acceptance rates through UCAS, with an increase of 4.7% of UK 18-year-olds (255,130) being accepted. In contrast to last year, overall acceptances were up 3.1% to 439,180 applicants. The data on UK 18-year-olds, whilst somewhat positive for the sector, masks the fact that the proportion of 18-year-olds in the population declined this year to 41.2%. That is a key metric to observe going forward as a barometer for demand.
Indicators of note that may bear a relationship to online education include a decline in the number of UK mature students (21+) gaining a place at university, falling from 52,130 in 2024 to 50,880 in 2025. This population represents a common demographic associated with online and flexible study, and although some commentary in the HE press drew on this data to highlight a decline in mature students, this is not consistent with HESA’s reporting of enrolment trends for this group, so some caution is needed in interpreting what this may mean.
At subject level, the area that saw the largest increase in students was engineering and technology. This may strengthen the pipeline into PGT distance learning programmes in the future. UK distance learning enrolment trends in engineering and technology show an overall upward trajectory since 2019–20, and the prospect of more students qualified to progress to level 7 study is certainly no bad thing.
New UK university partnership to grow international online enrolments
This quarter has seen new partnering activity, though not of the traditional OPM type. One partnership focused on online degrees was announced between the University of Lancashire (formerly University of Central Lancashire) and Robert Kennedy College (RKC), based in Zurich. For those unfamiliar, RKC has a small number of UK university partners for whom it delivers online degrees, often on a franchise or validated basis, with a strong focus on the international online student market.
The first outcomes of this partnership are three online master’s degrees: MSc Business Analytics and Artificial Intelligence, MSc Cyber Security with Artificial Intelligence, and MSc Entrepreneurship & Innovation. This move continues the trend of activity aimed at growing online international enrolments in light of a more competitive domestic landscape and a need to diversify. It also highlights a smaller ecosystem of companies and providers focused on supporting universities to reach and serve online international students, which is something I intend to map and cover in the future.
Coursera partnerships with Cambridge and UAL
Beyond this, other partnerships have centred on online sub-degree provision, with the University of Cambridge’s newly rebranded Professional and Continuing Education (PACE) (formerly the Institute of Continuing Education, ICE) and the University of the Arts London (UAL) both forming new collaborations with Coursera.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, these partnerships have produced a number of AI-focused courses, clearly aiming to capitalise on the strong demand for AI content while broadening Coursera’s portfolio in this area. In my recent analysis of the company, I noted their reporting of an average of 13 enrolments per minute for AI-related content.
Sheffield close long-running MOOC partnership
One interesting contrast this quarter is the current wave of online sub-degree partnerships, aligned with high-demand areas, compared with those formed 8–10 years ago during the early days of MOOCs. This is particularly timely given the end of the partnership between FutureLearn and the University of Sheffield. This was one of the archetypal UK university MOOC partnerships which, for a time, had a dedicated team and approach. According to Class Central, over the years the university delivered 21 courses and reached 1.5 million learners.
Sheffield is not the only UK university to have ended its MOOC partnership with FutureLearn, but there appears to have been some acceleration in recent withdrawals. This may be linked to the financial pressures currently facing the sector, as universities are less able to cross-subsidise what, for many, has been a long-term loss-making activity. This highlights the fundamental problem with MOOCs, their lack of financial viability for both companies and universities. By contrast, the current moves into online sub-degree provision appear far more pragmatic and market-oriented.
Overall, there is clear and growing interest in online sub-degree provision. But the key lesson from MOOCs is the difficulty of building a financially sustainable portfolio. Success in this market will depend on robust market research, intelligence, and go-to-market strategy, rather than being carried along by the latest trends.
Blackboard parent company Anthology files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy
One of the biggest pieces of news in EdTech that just squeezed into this quarter comes from the virtual learning environment (VLE) product market, with the announcement that Anthology, the company behind Blackboard, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the US. Ultimately, the burden of debt taken on when Anthology and Blackboard merged proved too great, compounded by a decline in new business and higher-than-expected client attrition, as reported by Moody’s Ratings analysts in April.
It’s important to note that Chapter 11 bankruptcy is a specific form of restructuring process, one that 2U went through recently and arguably emerged from in better shape. While it is far from ideal PR for the company, the process enables Anthology to sell off components, including its Enterprise Operations, Lifecycle Engagement, and Student Success businesses, and emerge as a debt-free company with its teaching and learning business intact. The impact is likely to be reputational, potentially influencing universities’ decisions at contract renewal and during competitive tendering and selection processes. However, this outcome has been on the horizon for some time, so the company restructuring to continue on firmer ground is not overly surprising. As Phil Hill pointed out, the question is not whether Blackboard survives, but what kind of Blackboard emerges from this.
Moodle announces premium product and upgrades
On the subject of VLEs, this quarter also saw Moodle’s annual conference, MoodleMoot, held in Edinburgh. It’s worth checking out Glenda Morgan’s conference notes, but in summary this event signalled more significant changes than in previous years. The announcements included a new premium product for higher education built on top of the Moodle VLE, as well as some fundamental architectural changes. Taken together, these developments seem to indicate both a greater willingness and a defined path towards making Moodle a more modern and competitive product in the HE VLE market.
What links both of these developments is that the two legacy players in the VLE market are looking to establish firmer ground in order to compete in a space where they were once dominant, but in recent years have been losing market share to D2L and Instructure. For UK higher education, the direction these companies are taking will hopefully lead to better VLE products and a wider range of options for universities considering a switch. However, neither is guaranteed success, so this remains one to watch over the next 12 months.
University of Derby launches PgCert in Online Teaching
There have been a number of interesting developments from UK universities in respect of online courses and programmes. One of the first that stood out to me was the University of Derby launching a new PgCert in Online Teaching. Whilst this type of course is not entirely new, the University of Derby Online has developed the programme to support people either beginning or transitioning into a career in online teaching or tutoring.
This feels timely, with alternative schooling in the form of hybrid and online schools gaining traction, alongside the progress of companies such as MyEdSpace, a digital schooling platform that hosts live lessons and which recently raised over £11 million in a Series A funding round. Clearly, this is a course aligned with a growing professional need in a subject category (Education and Teaching) that has seen strong growth in online PGT enrolments and is one of the higher-volume subject areas in the UK online student market.
Professional upskilling through online degrees in pharmacy
Another notable development this quarter was the launch of Robert Gordon University’s online BSc (Hons) top-up in Clinical Practice for Pharmacy Technicians. Online education already has a track record of supporting large numbers of pharmacists to expand their professional competence through online independent prescribing courses. This new degree takes a similar approach but is aimed at pharmacy technicians, providing another example of how online learning supports professional development and responds to areas of workforce demand and priority.
Heriot-Watt launches Professional Academy for online CPD
Continuing the theme of professional development, this quarter saw the launch of Heriot-Watt University’s Professional Academy. The Academy offers 50 PGT-level online credit-bearing courses that can be stacked into full master’s-level qualifications. It is one of a growing number of examples of separate lifelong and professional education brands being launched by UK universities.
However, this is not being built entirely from scratch but is an example of a university with long-standing experience in the online education market drawing on modules from existing online degrees and bundling them into a new CPD brand with a clear B2C and B2B focus. Some features that stood out include the ability to start at any time, the lack of an undergraduate degree requirement to access postgraduate-level courses, and the value proposition of access to a wide range of courses through Coursera’s Career Academy.
Oxford Saïd Business School reaches 50,000 online learners
Another university with a similar type of proposition, launched several years ago, is Oxford Saïd Business School, which this quarter celebrated the milestone of 50,000 learners completing its online programmes. The school has worked with various online education companies but also announced this quarter that it would be expanding its partnership with 2U, launching an AI programme for executives as well as a suite of 16 short courses, all delivered on edX.
University of London sets out ambitious Global Digital Campus plans
However, the development that was arguably most significant this quarter came from the University of London (UoL), presented at the University of Leeds Online Learning Summit. UoL’s Director of Strategy Development, Sam Brenton, outlined plans for their Global Digital Campus, which marks another move towards disaggregated, flexible, modular online provision at significant scale. The initial plans include 30 credit-bearing postgraduate microcredentials in a new lifelong learning format, with new UG and PGT degrees in this format to follow.
At first glance, this may not appear overly distinct from other reported developments, but under the hood there are notable differences. The proposition offers a high level of access, with advisory rather than fixed entry requirements, anytime starts, and no application form required. In terms of learning experience and student journey, the distinctive feature is that courses are supported by AI tutors rather than human tutors, although students will also have a named progress advisor.
Assessment is competency-based, with students able to decide when they are ready to take assessments and allowed unlimited resits. Importantly, rolling exam boards mean provisional marks are available within two weeks. In addition, the courses are designed to support geopricing. From a technical perspective, and with a nod to the VLE market, Canvas by Instructure has been selected to support this approach instead of the existing UoL Moodle VLE.
This development, alongside others, reinforces the trend towards breaking down access barriers and abandoning traditional selectivity measures, disaggregating degrees into standalone and stackable modules, and building provision that supports flexible education across people’s working lives. Where it pushes things further, however, is through its competency-based approach, which has not yet taken hold in UK higher education, and the use of AI tutors.
The University of London, as a long-standing provider of online education with many programmes and thousands of students, is uniquely placed to pursue a model like this. Whether similar conditions exist elsewhere to make such an approach viable is highly debatable. It will be fascinating to see this play out, and although there are clear question marks around student demand for this model, it is commendable that the University of London is willing to take a bold step in this direction.
Many in the sector will no doubt be watching with interest, and to return to earlier points, it would be beneficial for government and policymakers to begin recognising and understanding how online education operations are not only supporting lifelong and professional education today but also developing provision that offers greater access, flexibility, and alignment with the job market.
Reflections on the quarter
This is an interesting time for UK higher education, with potentially significant policy changes and directions on the horizon, set against a backdrop of severe financial distress in the sector and wider economic sluggishness in the country. What has been evident this quarter is a more concentrated focus on developing propositions and courses that align with the prevailing narrative of recent years, education as a utility for professional development and skills, particularly in short forms.
In online education, however, this remains almost entirely focused on level 7 postgraduate provision. That said, in some of the examples highlighted here, the emphasis on accessibility means the absence of level 4–6 qualifications does not present a barrier to entry.
While online degrees continue to be developed and universities are entering the online degree market, there is something of a shift, especially amongst more mature market players, towards online sub-degree and disaggregated provision, with many of the most interesting developments occurring here in the last quarter. This will be an area to watch going forward, not just in terms of what is being launched but also how it performs.
The obvious metrics to evaluate at a distance are levels of demand and success in capturing that demand, but with differing approaches to access and delivery, student progress and success will also be important to understand. Above all, the central question remains whether, in this difficult financial climate, universities can build financially sustainable online sub-degree and disaggregated modular portfolios, something that might be a bit clearer to assess this time next year.
