Over the last year there have been a number of developments that could not have been more closely aligned with longer-term trends and patterns if they had been deliberately engineered to do so. Whether in the fortunes of companies, the profile of HE providers adopting particular VLEs, or the companies chosen for portfolio and product expansion, the most significant developments of the year align closely with patterns seen in recent years.

This year has been something of a paradox for the VLE market in UK higher education. While there has been plenty to report on within the big four companies that dominate this market, there have been barely any major changes by universities regarding which virtual learning environment (VLE) they use.

Unless Blackboard and Moodle improve their competitiveness, it is likely that next year will see Canvas take second place in the overall market share, with Brightspace continuing to grow market share.

It’s still difficult to see any serious competitors to the established big four and those reflecting on the experience of Aula, may be even more reluctant to bet on an upstart company to provide such a central piece of the digital campus.

The ascendency of Moodle and Blackboard is increasingly under threat. There is growing adoption of the two other big VLE players in Canvas and Brightspace, as well as the adoption of newer products like Aula.