International online students in UK higher education: What the 2023–24 TNE data reveals
International students have been a major focus of debate in UK higher education, but this has mainly focused on those coming to the UK to study. Transnational education (TNE), education delivered in a country other than the one in which the awarding institution is based, generally receives less attention. The main story of international on-campus students enrolments is the numbers going south on the back of multiple government policy interventions. The most recent of these involves the government going a bit Colonel Tom Parker on us and proposing taking a 6% cut of international students' tuition fees. In contrast to these declines, TNE student numbers have actually been increasing.
More universities have been focusing on TNE as part of the diversification strategies they have increasingly had to adopt due to weakening financial positions. The growth in TNE student numbers reflects this increased prioritisation. On the face of it, this is a significant market, and one in which UK higher education still has a strong brand to leverage.
Alongside data on UK-based students, the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) has a dataset covering transnational education. Although this dataset is more limited overall, it includes data on distance, flexible, and distributed learning students, which encompasses online education. It has not undergone the type of reporting changes seen in the main UK student dataset, and therefore offers somewhat greater reliability for time series analysis.
Having analysed UK-based online student data earlier in the year, this post will focus on what the 2023–24 data on online TNE students tell us.
International TNE online student numbers in 2023–24
The 2023–24 TNE data release shows an increase of over 2,500 online undergraduate degree students and a decline of over 2,000 postgraduate-taught (PGT) students. Interestingly, this is the first year since 2015–16 that there has been a decline in international online PGT students.
The 2023–24 data release recorded the following totals for international online distance learning students:
52,345 – Undergraduate degree students
8,145 – Other undergraduate students*
78,065 – Postgraduate-taught (PGT) students
*These are typically qualifications below the level of a full degree, such as foundation degrees, HNDs, CertHEs, etc.
Growth in international online undergraduate degree enrolments
The 2023–24 data release shows the most significant numerical increase in international online undergraduate degree students in the past 10 years, with this year seeing a 5% rise.
This follows several years of very minimal growth. One swallow doesn’t make a summer, however, so it will be important to observe next year's data to determine whether UK universities are genuinely increasing international online undergraduate degree enrolments.
Unlike the overall picture for TNE, the number of international online undergraduate students from the European Union has held up and is at its highest level in the last five years. However, it is the Asia, North America, and Middle East regions that have generally performed strongest for enrolment increases since 2019–20, with growth in students from the Middle East being the most eye-catching.
More so than with the UK student data, the data for international online students really needs to be interpreted in relation to university activity, rather than as a general indicator of student demand. This market segment is highly concentrated, with 11 universities responsible for over 90% of all students. Most of these universities are strategically invested in the online undergraduate degree market, and the majority recorded increases in student numbers in 2023–24.
The table below shows the universities that reported the highest number of international undergraduate degree distance learning students in 2023–24. This should be seen as a list of universities that reported the highest number of students, rather than a ranking of the top ten online undergraduate degree providers in the international market.
Largest UK universities by number of international undergraduate degree distance learning students in 23/24. Data from HESA.
The University of London dominates this market, with a long legacy of international TNE and distance learning provision. However, this is the first year since 2016–17 that it has reported a year-on-year increase, halting a gradual decline in student numbers. The opposite can be said of the Open University, which has seen consistent year-on-year growth in recent years, along with Arden University, the University of Hertfordshire, the University of Essex Online, and Edinburgh Napier University. While this data release highlights promising signs of growth, this is largely concentrated among established, mature providers in the market.
A year of decline in international online PGT enrolments
The number of UK online PGT students has grown significantly in recent years, but this growth has not quite been mirrored by international students. There has certainly been growth over the last 10 years, but not at the same rate, and this year has seen a drop in student numbers.
Even so, the market still shows an overall trend of growth since 2019/20. However, unlike the undergraduate degree market, this segment has seen a significant decline in EU students, from 21,000 in 2020/21 to 15,000 in 2023/24. Outside the EU, almost all other regions also experienced a dip in student numbers, with the exception of the Middle East.
This is a market often spoken about, particularly when UK universities launch online master’s programmes, but these numbers and trends do bear some reflection. Overall growth is steady, despite the increase in the number of online PGT degrees offered by universities over the last five to seven years.
The table below shows the universities that reported the highest numbers of international PGT distance learning students in 2023/24.. As with the undergraduate list, similar caveats apply, my own list of the top ten market players would look slightly different.
Largest UK universities by number of International PGT distance learning students in 23/24. Data source: HESA
Interestingly, almost all of these universities have seen a drop in student numbers compared to 2022/23. In most cases, the decline was significant, amounting to several hundred students. Although not included in this list, SOAS recorded a drop of nearly 1,000 students, whereas the University of Liverpool saw the largest increase, adding 450 students.
Several of the universities featured here have appeared on this list for a number of years, but based on the trends and activity of other institutions, it would not be surprising to see a number of newer entrants over the next one to three years.
Reflections on international online education: challenges and opportunities
This data underscores how international online students form a significant part of the overall UK HE online education landscape. However, the trends and numbers do not quite match some of the more hyped-up language about the scale of the opportunity for recruiting international students to online programmes. Nevertheless, the international market more broadly is an area of increasing focus, not least due to growing competition and the need to scale student numbers to support financial sustainability.
This data release does provide something of a reality check, particularly with the decline in online PGT students outside the EU. This segment has been the real engine of growth, with annual increases and overall growth of more than 13,000 students between 2019–20 and 2022–23. Although it's difficult to attribute specific causes, the fact that the decline in student numbers was spread across regions (with the exception of the Middle East) may raise concerns, particularly given that online PGT degrees are the core offering in online education.
In spite of this drop, a range of providers have recorded enrolment increases, which points to a market where some institutions may have more effective strategies than others. Some may need to revisit and refine their approach, or prioritise improving their orientation towards global online student markets.
Given everything happening in UK HE, and the increasingly competitive nature of the online education market, the international TNE online market is only going to become more important. While several institutions are recruiting well internationally, this remains an area where a good number of institutions, some newer to the market, others more established, need to develop dedicated and effective strategies to reach international students.
