Q1 2024 Review: Developments in UK Online Education
Photo by Dan Cristian Pădureț
If you're anything like me, you'll be reflecting on how swiftly the year seems to be progressing and how distant January feels. We've now reached the end of the first quarter of 2024, making it an opportune time to reflect on online education news and developments in UK higher education.
It's been a quarter filled with plenty of interesting happenings, whether in regard to online education companies or UK higher education institutions (HEIs), so there's much to cover.
UK HEI and company partnerships
In my end-of-2023 review, I highlighted the cessation of a number of partnerships between UK HEIs and online education companies last year. For some, this might suggest an existential challenge to the online programme management (OPM) business model, with a perceived downward trajectory for these businesses. However, as anyone informed and genuinely trying to be objective will tell you, it's not as simple as that.
Developments in the last quarter do little to solidify the idea of a post-OPM reality, certainly not in the UK. The start of the year has seen several new partnerships being announced, including Aston University partnering with the Australian OPM company OES, and the University of Surrey and University of Birmingham partnering with the US OPM company 2U. Each of these partnerships have layers to them that make them somewhat less routine than others.
Aston University, is an example of a HEI that has moved relatively quickly from the end of one OPM partnership to another, and that in and of itself challenges the post-OPM narratives. Their partnership with OES marks the company's most significant success since entering the UK market in 2018, offering a substantial volume of work with 18 online degrees in the pipeline.
The intriguing aspects of the other two partnerships relate more to the company than the HEI. It's well-known and widely publicised that 2U is in an extremely challenging financial position, with their acquisition of edX causing significant issues and raising serious questions about their long-term viability.
So these partnerships come with a sense of risk and jeopardy. The level of risk, based on the precarity of a company's financial position, is not unique to 2U, but their financial difficulties are highly visible. It’s both the sense of risk and that risk being so widely understood that adds a different flavour to these two new partnerships. It’s also notable, given 2U’s stronger association with the US higher education market, that the only new partnerships they’ve highlighted this year have been with UK universities.
In terms of partnership trends over the last quarter, there's a continuation of steady year-on-year growth in OPM and UK HEI partnerships. The partnership announcements also hint at an evolution of the type of portfolios these partnerships support. Although both are primarily focused on online postgraduate master's degrees, the OES and Aston partnership will include some online undergraduate degrees, and Surrey and 2U's deal will include a minimum of 15 professional certificate programs.
While these were the headline partnership announcements, they are far from the only ones this year. FutureLearn has quietly and steadily been growing its number of new UK partner universities, with recent additions including the University of Bradford, University of Hertfordshire, and Oxford Brookes University.
Another recent partnership arrangement between the Open University (OU) and Coursera has also caught the eye. Given the OU's divestment from FutureLearn, it's interesting to see them partnering with a rival. So far, the OU has one Coursera Specialisation on the platform, and as this partnership develops, it will be interesting to see how the portfolio evolves and the balance of courses between FutureLearn and Coursera.
Online education company developments and news
The first quarter of the year saw Coursera and 2U publishing their 2023 results, with Keypath publishing half-year results as they follow a different accounting schedule, reporting half-year results in February and end-of-year results in August.
Both Coursera and Keypath reported revenue growth, continuing to express optimism about their path to profitability and the strength of their balance sheets. In contrast, 2U reported an annual decrease in revenue across its two main segments: degrees and alternative credentials.
Enrolment and learner numbers also showed a contrast, with Coursera reporting a total of 22,025 online degree students, up 22% from the previous year. Keypath reported a 4.3% increase in course enrolments from the previous year, with the number of learners rising to 47,746. Meanwhile, 2U reported a decline in enrolments for degrees and alternative credentials both in the last quarter of 2023 and across the year. As of Q4 2022, 2U reported 53,631 degree students, a number that decreased to 43,309 by Q4 2023, marking a 19% decrease.
The reporting highlighted the evolving priorities of these companies in terms of subject focus. Unsurprisingly, 2U is now adopting more rigorous criteria for the online degrees it undertakes, focusing on STEM subjects and degrees that support professional registration. Keypath has shifted its strategy to heavily focus on healthcare, now the major source of the company's revenue, contrasting with a few years ago when business was the key vertical.
While Coursera's commitment to being at the forefront of upskilling in AI and generative AI is evident, with over 800 AI-related courses that nearly 7 million learners have enrolled in over the last year. They have also launched a Generative AI Academy catering to a broad and a more specific executive audience.
All three companies have stated that the continued development of online degrees is a key part of their strategy. 2U plans to launch at least 80 new degree programs this year, while Coursera aims to grow their degree portfolio, despite it being smaller in revenue terms compared to their consumer and enterprise segments. Coursera is also focused on developing stronger pathways for learners from their consumer segment into degrees, and this has led to them securing more credit recommendation agreements for their professional certificates.
Microcredentials are gaining importance for this reason and others, with Coursera particularly invested in creating more industry-focused microcredentials in partnership with companies like Google, IBM, Microsoft, and others.
The other development of note is Coursera’s implementation of AI into their platform, most notably in rapidly translating their portfolio into various languages using AI. This is a foretaste of the use of AI-powered translation to support localisation of courses, which I think will become a greater feature of online learning in the years to come.
While these three companies have been in the news due to their financial reporting, a company that is worth more than a passing mention is FutureLearn. In summer 2022 things looked bleak for FutureLearn with doubts over their continuing existence, before in late 2022 the company was acquired by Global University Systems (GUS).
FutureLearn is now a very different company and it is achieving notable growth in the number of online degrees it has on its platform, especially in the last quarter. As of the end of Q1 2024, approximately 120 online degrees are available, a significant increase from around 70 at the end of 2023. This growth is down to two main factors, firstly from adding online degrees from GUS group universities such as Arden University and from HEIs partnered with GUS’s OPM arm such as Brunel University.
The second factor is the development of affiliate marketing of online degrees on the platform. There are a growing number of UK HEIs marketing their online degrees through the FutureLearn platform, recent examples include the University of Huddersfield, University of Birmingham, University of Exeter, University of Edinburgh, Oxford Brookes University, University of Bradford and University of Hertfordshire.
One last development of note in the last quarter has been the sale of Udacity. At the beginning of March it was announced that Accenture would be buying Udacity and they will become part of Accenture LearnVantage. This new venture seems to be a reskilling and upskilling services arm for their large number of staff and their clients.
Udacity hasn’t been an online education platform marked by its partnerships with universities for some time and has been meandering somewhat in recent years so it’s perhaps not overly surprising that they have been acquired.
For many in higher education this acquisition will evoke memories of this bold prediction made by Udacity’s founder Sebastian Thrun at the height of MOOC hype:
“In 50 years, there will be only 10 institutions in the world delivering higher education and Udacity has a shot at being one of them.”
The combination of this sale and memories of that quote has sparked a decent amount of schadenfreude.
Online education developments within UK HEIs
It isn't always easy to separate company and UK higher education institution (HEI) developments in online education, as the two often share a close relationship. This has been evident in a number of developments over the last quarter.
I've previously discussed the nascent move towards open enrolment for online degrees. While many UK HEIs have been gradually introducing two annual intake dates for master's degrees, typically in September and January, the pace of these changes looks positively pedestrian in comparison to some developments in online education.
The last quarter has witnessed a number of HEIs starting to offer portfolios of online degrees with open enrolment. City University, for instance, launched a portfolio of open enrolment online computer science degrees with their OPM partner, Higher Ed Partners. These programmes allow learners to begin their studies as soon as they are accepted and pay per module.
Another significant move into open enrolment online degrees last quarter was by The London Institute of Banking and Finance (LIBF). In 2023, LIBF was acquired by German tech giant IU Group and this year has seen a rebrand and significant online education development. LIBF now offers an expanded online education portfolio comprising ten undergraduate degrees and thirteen postgraduate degrees, all with open enrolment, allowing learners to choose their preferred start date. These examples are indicative of a growing trend towards open enrolment, primarily through private partnerships that can more easily facilitate this shift.
King’s College London also launched a number of online postgraduate taught (PGT) degrees this last quarter. They have added multidisciplinary/interdisciplinary programmes to their portfolio, including titles such as Digital Economies, Digital Futures, Global Political Economy, and International Development. These programmes are also offered via an OPM partnership, this time with CEG Digital.
These programmes hint at a broader subject focus for online programmes, moving beyond traditional online education verticals such as business and management, health and medicine, computing, and education. This shift is driven by various factors, including the entry of a wider array of UK HEIs into the online education market. Notably, a growing number of arts and creative-focused HEIs are developing online course portfolios, as evidenced this quarter.
The Arts University Bournemouth, for example, has built upon the modest online degree portfolio it launched in 2022 through an OPM partnership by adding online master's degrees in creative writing, graphic design, photography, and illustration.
Microcredentials
Microcredentials have been a continued area of interest, though there has tended to be an imbalance between attention and activity. However, there have been some developments in online microcredentials this last quarter. King’s College, London announced the launch of an industry microcredential in Product Management in partnership with online education company FourthRev. This adds to FourthRev’s portfolio of “career accelerators” that are developed and offered in partnership with companies and HEIs such as LSE and the University of Cambridge’s Institute of Continuing Education.
While there are continued efforts being put into online microcredentials , there’s a continuum of prioritisation with some UK HEIs like the Open University and University of Nottingham Online more strategically invested in their development. Although an imperfect and small measure, I tend to think the results from one of my recent weekly LinkedIn pulse polls give a decent impression of where we’re at with online microcredentials.
Online education recruitment
There has been continued movement in senior online education roles and the creation of new positions. The University of the Arts London (UAL) has recently created several new roles, including Head of Market Insight, Data and Analytics, Head of Marketing, Head of Recruitment, and Director of Production. This represents a HEI developing significant internal online education capability through the creation of new roles, which is largely the exception. The majority of recruitment efforts this quarter have focused on appointing a singular figurehead in the form of a Director of Online Education. Some of the HEIs that have advertised for replacement or inaugural directors recently include the University of Exeter, University of Roehampton, Falmouth University and Leeds Trinity University.
In other news
There has been talk of a new online education ranking by Times Higher Education, but the last quarter saw the publication of the established Financial Times Online MBA 2024 rankings, featuring five UK online MBAs in the top ten.
There was some movement amongst the longer standing, top-ranked online MBA providers in the UK. Imperial College Business School and Warwick Business School swapped places as 2nd and 3rd in the rankings, while Durham University Business School’s online MBA climbed from 8th to 6th.
There were also notable UK entries, with University of Bradford School of Management’s online MBA returning to the top 10 (10) and Birmingham Business School (9) breaking into the top ten for the very first time. With the exception of the University of Liverpool Management School’s online MBA dropping out of the top ten it was a very good showing for UK HEIs. However, none were able to topple IE Business School, Madrid from the top spot they’ve held for two years running.
Summing up
This quarter has once again proved how dynamic the online education space is in the UK at the moment. It’s highlighted through portfolio, product and staff development how UK higher education is increasingly seeing online education as an area of strategic investment and growth.
The quarter has also seen continued appetite to partner with online education companies to support these aims, as well as developments within those companies themselves to gain competitive advantage.
We’ve seen some UK HEIs online education plans coming to fruition through the launch of course portfolios and given that there are a significant number of UK HEIs a few steps back from this, I think it’s inevitable that we will see further developments of interest in the coming quarters of 2024.
