Trends in UK online higher education: Analysis of 2022–23 HESA student data
Last week saw the long-awaited final release of the 22-23 student data from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA). For those less acquainted with UK higher education data publication cycles, this release was actually due in January. The delay was caused by issues with HESA Data Futures, a new system intended to enable more frequent reporting of student data by universities than the current annual schedule.
It is an understatement to say that Data Futures has faced challenges, and because of these issues and the changes made, there are more caveats and less confidence in the data from this release. However, regardless of the year, this data should not be considered as completely accurate in reflecting UK HE; it is more indicative of that year’s position.
The final release offers an opportunity to review data on online distance learning for UK-based students. Although this data relates to an academic year that’s no longer visible in the rear view mirror, it remains valuable, not least because it provides insight into a post-pandemic year. This is particularly important for online distance learning, given the spike in student numbers seen in 2020/21 for obvious reasons.
However, as HESA has changed the way data is reported, it does not align directly with the previous data, making comparisons with earlier years difficult. HESA has advised against time-series analysis. Nonetheless, it is hard not to attempt some form of comparison, particularly as part of the value of this data is to understand rates of growth or decline. So when I reference differences between previous years it is worth remembering that any prior data is not truly comparable.
Online distance learning student numbers in 2022-23
The 22-23 data recorded the following totals of UK-based online distance learning students:
184,600 - Undergraduate students
89,470 - Postgraduate-taught (PGT) students
Although online distance learning is often most closely aligned with the needs of PGT students, the number of undergraduate students are actually higher. This is largely due to two factors: first, the Open University, which accounts for 130,620 online undergraduates and holds around 70% of the market; and second, the longer duration of undergraduate courses, which means students are reported in the numbers for a longer period.
While a true comparison isn’t possible, the reported number of students in 22-23 shows a tiny increase on the 184,590 undergraduates and a decline on the 91,610 online PGT students from the previous year.
UK versus international online student markets
This data challenges some understandable assumptions about online distance learning opportunities for UK universities. There is a tendency among some universities to view online education as the key to accessing a vast international student market.
Of course, an international market for online education does exist, but the number of students studying online at UK universities from overseas is smaller, and growth in those numbers has been relatively modest. This is something I highlighted in my analysis of 22-23’s data on international online students, released earlier this year. There are also current and future challenges for UK universities regarding international online recruitment, such as the increasing implementation and evolution of global digital services taxes.
This recent data release underscores once again that the domestic market for online education is still the largest and has experienced the most significant growth in recent years. This is perhaps best demonstrated among UK-based online PGT students, as the 2022–23 HESA data release shows that 25% of all UK-based postgraduate students were studying via online distance learning in 2022–23.
Top UK universities by online student enrolment
The 2022–23 data provides insight into the UK universities with the largest numbers of online undergraduate and PGT students. Below is a table of the top 25 UK universities by student numbers from the HESA data.
Unsurprisingly, the Open University dominates these figures, and no other university comes close in terms of student numbers. This group of 25 universities represents some of the key UK institutions in online distance learning provision, but there are a number of anomalies.
These anomalies include universities that may have a single programme with very high enrolment for various reasons, or universities that offer online courses to exclusive groups, such as armed forces personnel, among others reasons. The few universities in this category are not comparable to the majority on this list, who provide a range of programmes open to a broader pool of applicants.
1. Largest UK universities by number of UK-based distance learning students in 22/23
Although there have been some changes to the 2021–22 top 25 universities, these are relatively minimal, with only five dropping out of the list.
One of the most notable entrants is the University of Wolverhampton, which reported over 2,000 more online distance learners in 2022–23 than in 2021–22. This is an example of how a partnership with an online programme management company (OPM) can, in some cases, offer a route to more rapid scaling of online enrolments.
Other notable changes include the emergence of the apprenticeships company Multiverse on the list, with a significant number of students classified by HESA as “Other Undergraduate”, those studying for qualifications that are broadly equivalent to or below first-degree level. The addition of Multiverse, alongside BPP University entering the top 25, increases the number of private providers featured.
This is certainly something to monitor. Whether it’s the impressive growth in online student numbers at private universities, or through private partnerships with OPMs and other online education companies, it is clear that private involvement and investment are playing an increasingly important role in online education in UK higher education.
Undergraduate and postgraduate online student breakdown
Breaking down the top UK universities by undergraduate and PGT online students in 22-23 provides an opportunity to see how these markets differ. There are only four universities that feature in the top 15 for both types of provision.
These groupings highlight the differing profiles of institutions operating in these markets. While there is hardly a Russell Group university to be seen among those offering online undergraduate courses, several have significant numbers of online PGT students.
2. Largest UK universities by number of UK-based all undergraduate distance learning students in 22/23
3. Largest UK universities by number of UK-based postgraduate-taught (PGT) distance learning students in 22/23
Key conclusions from the 2022-23 HESA data
It’s been a difficult year for data in UK higher education, and due to this, along with changes to the model, it is much harder to draw conclusions that involve comparisons with previous years.
The 2022–23 data does not, on its own, allow us to draw strong conclusions about online enrolment trends. It neither shows significant increases nor major declines. Next year’s data will provide a reference point for this new reporting approach and allow proper comparisons to be made again.
Unsurprisingly, the data shows a clear correlation between universities that are seriously and strategically invested in online distance education and higher student numbers. While it may seem strange to point that out, as more universities grow their online student body, the presence of those not significantly invested in online education, but appearing due to specific reasons, relationships, or anomalies, is diminishing.
For institutions considering their online education strategy and provision, it is worth noting that most universities on these lists are not those that have developed online programmes in disconnected clusters, but rather those that are coordinated and serious about online education, either internally or through partnerships. While caution is needed when drawing insights from this data, the further maturing of this market and the growing involvement of more UK universities in it might just be the most significant development.
